There are murmurs that President Trump’s scorching escalation of a trade war with China may soon simmer, as critical industries across the United States continue to sound alarms over what prolonged tariffs might mean for the viability of doing business. Only time will tell, though.
Time is a precious commodity for Martin Pochtaruk. Each day’s sand passes through his hourglass faster than he’d prefer. Even amidst a schedule loaded with internal priorities and interviews with the likes of The Wall Street Journal, the chief executive officer of North American manufacturer Heliene finds a few minutes to talk about the important stuff with those who, in the grand scheme of things, may not be all that important to him, like me.
I most recently connected with him the morning after Trump placed a precarious 90-day pause on sweeping global tariffs that threatened to turn the U.S. economy into mush. The back-and-forth could come at a more convenient time for Pochtaruk, as Heliene is currently working out the kinks of getting two solar manufacturing lines up and running. Both are collaborations with Premier Energies. The first, in India, just started up. The other, an addition to Heliene’s Minnesota manufacturing capacity, is designed to be its doppelganger.
Indian imports were slapped with a 27% tariff on “Liberation Day,” an unexpected and dramatic increase from their previous rate of zero. Heliene sources solar cells from Laos, too. The dealmaker-in-chief was even crueler to trade from that particular Southeast Asian nation, hitting it with 48% duties, an even further cry from zilch.
“We have June, July, and August orders with cells from Laos and India,” Pochtaruk pointed out. Heliene fixes its prices 120 days forward, like many other manufacturers.
“So when somebody says you have to pay a 48% import duty, that’s three to four million dollars per month.“
Let’s Make a Deal (Please)
On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revealed that he expects India to strike the first bilateral trade deal to avoid President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. In a reporter roundtable, Bessent said that trade talks with India were “very close” to reaching a successful conclusion because the world’s most populous nation doesn’t have “so many high tariffs.”
That would be a relief to Pochtaruk, since if the 27% tariff stays in place, the solar infrastructure Heliene and Premier Energies are making on their new line in India would be considerably less valuable.
From 1974, when the Trade Act was passed, until a couple of months ago, most trade action had to funnel through the Department of Commerce, providing a reasonable runway for affected importers and exporters to switch up their supply chains before any final determinations were issued. That stuff doesn’t happen overnight.
“But on April 2, the order comes saying these duties would be enacted in three business days…”
Pochtaruk trails off. “You’re done.”
“The main issue here is not ‘is there a duty?’ Whatever happens, if your business has the ability to plan for it, you’ll be fine,” he elaborated. “Everybody that makes modules in the U.S. used to buy cells from Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand… We had a period of time to find alternative sources, qualify them, certify them, and go on.”
Finding alternative sources, obtaining new solar cells, conducting testing, and going through the certification process takes nine months at best, Pochtaruk told Factor This. He expects to get his hands on the first samples from his new n-type line in India sometime in June and hopes to certify them by October.
“I’m pretty sure the administration is doing things for a reason and there is a plan,” he offered. “But for those of us in business who need to work with this type of thing, it poses a challenge.”
Another Challenge, China
According to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, the U.S. exported $143.5 billion of goods to China in 2024, while importing products worth $438.9 billion. Many American businesses rely heavily on Chinese goods, and no matter what happens to the “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs, it’s looking like negotiations with China will be another monster entirely.
The current tariff rate on Chinese imports is 145% at the time of this writing, but you’d be forgiven if you’d lost track. The figure has been rising rapidly in recent months after staying steady at 25% for about seven years.
To get ahead of projected increases on Chinese tariffs, Heliene shipped the equipment for its newest Minnesota n-type line in early February, before new duties took effect.
“On the equipment we brought in for line three, we paid the original 2018 25% (tariff) only,” confirmed Pochtaruk. “We shipped ahead of time to be able to do that, over fears something was going to happen, and surprise, surprise, it did happen. So our planning on the investment for line three worked.”
As you may already be aware, the equipment needed to make solar stuff isn’t itself made in the United States, which presents a problem for people like Pochtaruk trying to create American jobs while cringing as their bottom line gets sliced up in a knife fight of a trade war. About half of the equipment Heliene and Premier Energies are using in their joint venture comes from China, and the other half from Europe.
“We need to now change and find as much European replacement equipment as possible,” Heliene’s CEO asserted.
“But what really happens?”
Prices go up across the board; that’s what happens. When the feds tacked new tariffs onto Chinese imports in February, solar glass (another thing we don’t make in the U.S.) prices went up. The moment that happened, Pochtaruk attested, the cost of alternative supply from Malaysia and India increased commensurately.
“Why? Because they could.”
Here’s another example. Heliene has been buying American-made aluminum frames since April of 2023, paying a slight premium to do so. As soon as prices for imported aluminum went up with new duties, the cost of US-made aluminum went up by the same percentage.
“Why? Because they could,” Pochtaruk reiterated.
“What I’m saying is the moment your Chinese equipment becomes more costly, the competition does the same,” he continued. “You’ll be able to bring in Euro equipment, but you’ll deal with the supply and demand forces. The moment there is more demand for European-made equipment, the cost goes up. Why? Because they can.”
Planning for the Worst
Pochtaruk is listening to anyone who might have ways to diversify his supply chain, but he’s not seeking financing or refinancing.
“In times of uncertainty, financing gets complicated,” he told me. “Banks don’t like uncertainty. Banks don’t like planning that changes.”
Heliene has been in business for around 15 years and has orders stretching years into the future. They’re going to be okay, says Pochtaruk. But others?
“Whether they’re our competitors or somebody making salami, if you are going out to get financing, to get a line of credit, this uncertainty is not helping anyone.”
Heliene and plenty of its brethren are waiting anxiously to see how the 45x tax credits situation shakes out, too.
“It’s not just because we’re curious,” Pochtaruk snipes. “It is simply because lenders require it… All lenders today in the U.S. for projects with energy-related components want the tax credit to be there as collateral. That is a requirement.”
For now, Heliene’s CEO is spending his days, short as ever, even as they grow ‘longer’ in stretching hours of Minnesota sunshine, planning for disaster and hoping for something much more palatable. Among his current thought exercises is whether there are Chinese products that are still worth paying a massive premium to import. He’s not sure how the math works out, yet.
“You plan for the worst possible scenario,” he confirms. “And if things are better, your clients will be happier, because costs will be lower.”
Only time will tell.
